Brokeback Mountain will win. A History of Violence should win. The Constant Gardener and Good Night and Good Luck are worthy movies nominated for no good reason. Match Point is a great film but Hollywood doesn't give awards to people who a) aren't photogenic b)don't turn up and c)marry their adoptive daughters. Conspicuous by its absence is Spielberg's controversial new movie, Munich.
BEST FILM (COMEDY/MUSICAL) The Producers will win, continuing its runaway Broadway success. Walk the Line should win BEST DRAMA! Pride and Prejudice and Mrs. Henderson presents should be nowhere near this list, they are so bloody mediocre.
BEST ACTOR (DRAMA) - should and will go to Philip Seyour Hoffman for Capote, but could go to Heath Ledger for Brokeback Mountain. Terrence Howard is great in Hustle and Flow, but this year the competition is tough. BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA) - should go to Maria Bello for A History of Violence but will go to the more marketable Charlize Theron for North Country. Gwyneth Paltrow should never have been nominated for Proof, in which she was insipid, unconvincing and unengaging.
BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL) Nathan Lane should and will get it for The Producers, but Joaquin Phoenix should get Best Actor Drama for Walk the Line. The rest of the contenders are pants. BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL) should go to Reese Witherspoon, again for Walk the Line which is in the wrong freakin' category! The award will no doubt go to Keira Knightley for Pride and Prejudice and I will kill myself.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR will go to Will Ferrell for The Producers - a cruel Papageno effect as the award should go to George Clooney for Syriana. BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS should go to Scarlett Johansson for Match Point, but will go to Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain. That In Her Shoes is nominated for anything is a travesty.
BEST DIRECTOR and SCREENPLAY will and should go to Brokeback Mountain, but it is sad for Woody Allen, as Match Point is just as good. It would be unusual for Spielberg to get an award for Munich when the film has received so few other nominations. If he wins, it is a sympathy vote. BEST FOREIGN FILM should and may well go to KUNG FU HUSTLE, by far the best film of 2005 and the best film on any nomination list.